One of Yoshitomo Nara’s largest paintings is also one of his most profound and subtle. Instead of glaring defiantly at the viewer—a trademark expression that has defined much of his celebrated career—the child at the center of In the Milky Lake / Thinking One (2011) has her eyes closed and wears a remarkably serene expression on her face. Her body is half-submerged in a pale, ethereal pool of water, evoking a profound sense of calm amidst contemplation. On November 19, this monumental painting will be offered by Loïc Gouzer’s Fair Warning app, carrying a pre-sale estimate of $10 million to $15 million.
Measuring an impressive 8.5 feet by 6 feet, the work holds the distinction of being the largest painting by Nara ever to appear at public auction. The piece has remained in private hands for 14 years, shielding it from the public eye for over a decade. Ahead of the upcoming sale, the painting will be publicly exhibited in Chelsea at 534 West 22nd Street. The exhibition space has been specially designed to resemble a Japanese temple, providing a meditative and fitting architectural backdrop for the work. The exhibition will run from November 6 through November 19, allowing collectors, art historians, and the public a rare chance to experience the monumental canvas in person.
A Turning Point Born from Tragedy
Nara painted In the Milky Lake / Thinking One in 2011, a watershed year marked by tragedy. It was the year the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami devastated northeastern Japan, heavily impacting the very region where the artist grew up. The catastrophic natural disaster left Nara emotionally overwhelmed and unable to paint for some time. When he finally returned to his studio, something fundamental within his artistic psyche had shifted.
His familiar, much-loved cast of angry, defiant, and sometimes menacing children began to give way to quieter, more introspective figures. The raw fury of his earlier works softened into deep contemplation, reflecting the collective trauma and subsequent internal reflection brought on by the disaster.
Significantly, In the Milky Lake / Thinking One was the only major painting Nara completed that entire year, underscoring its pivotal importance in his overarching body of work. In the years since its creation, the painting has traveled extensively, appearing in numerous prestigious museum exhibitions around the world. These include his major 2012 survey in Japan, his expansive 2021 retrospective at the Los Angeles County Museum of Art (LACMA), and subsequent prominent shows at the Guggenheim Bilbao, the Museum Frieder Burda, and the Hayward Gallery in London. Furthermore, Nara proudly included the canvas in his 2015 monograph, Self-Selected Works: Paintings, cementing its status as a definitive piece from his mature period.
Navigating the Contemporary Art Market
The upcoming sale of Nara’s masterpiece will coincide with the high-profile November New York auctions hosted by major auction houses like Christie’s, Sotheby’s, and Phillips. During these seasonal sales, many of the high-ticket lots traditionally feature historical, blue-chip artists whose careers were firmly established throughout the 20th century. Names like Wassily Kandinsky, Claude Monet, Andy Warhol, and Jean-Michel Basquiat frequently dominate the headlines, overshadowing living contemporary artists.
However, Loïc Gouzer—who founded the digital-first auction platform Fair Warning after a high-profile tenure at Christie’s—believes that collectors may be quietly preparing to look at the contemporary art market through a slightly different lens.
Reflecting on the speculative buying frenzy that swept through the art market between 2021 and 2023, Gouzer offered a candid assessment of current market trends. "There was a lot of not very interesting contemporary [art] that was pushed hard and then crashed, deservedly," Gouzer told ARTnews, pointing to the correction that followed the overheated boom of the early 2020s.
"The main dogma of the last year and a half, two years, was like, ‘Contemporary is over. It’s only about blue chip,’" he added.
Despite this prevailing market sentiment, Gouzer is not buying into the narrative that contemporary art has lost its luster. He argues that Yoshitomo Nara is "as blue chip as it gets for contemporary art." Moreover, Nara’s relatively limited artistic output sets him apart significantly from some of the younger, hyper-produced artists whose market valuations have taken a severe beating in recent years. During the peak speculative years, many collectors paid a heavy premium for works they mistakenly thought were scarce, only to discover later that ample inventory existed in the broader market.
"Now we’re in a period where people don’t want what their neighbors have," Gouzer explained, highlighting a shift toward individuality and rarity among collectors. "They don’t want something that is like some kind of commodity. Nara is still here and the market is strong, partly because his art is great and also because it’s really rare."
Market Standing and Gallery Representation
Yoshitomo Nara’s all-time auction record currently stands at a staggering $24.9 million, a benchmark set at Sotheby’s Hong Kong in 2019 for his iconic 2000 painting Knife Behind Back. While his overall market has cooled somewhat from those dizzying pandemic-era peaks, major paintings by the artist continue to command impressive eight-figure sums. Demonstrating the enduring strength of this specific thematic series, a closely related work titled In the Milky Lake (2012)—which shares the contemplative, water-submerged imagery of the upcoming auction lot—successfully fetched $12.8 million at Sotheby’s Hong Kong in 2023.
In addition to market dynamics, Nara’s career has recently experienced a major structural shift in terms of gallery representation. In November 2025, David Zwirner announced that the international mega-gallery would represent the artist, concluding a successful 14-year run with Pace Gallery. Pace noted following the announcement that it would continue to work with Nara in various capacities moving forward.
Coinciding with this new chapter, David Zwirner opened Nara’s first solo exhibition with the gallery, spread across two separate Chelsea locations. The expansive exhibition features brand-new paintings, drawings, and sculptures, alongside a selection of earlier works personally chosen by the artist.
Gouzer believes that this high-profile gallery transition could inject a fresh wave of institutional and collector interest into Nara’s market. Drawing an analogy to music, Gouzer suggested that representation changes how an artist’s work is received by the public.
"An artist is a musical note, and then the gallery is an instrument," he said, pointing out that three monumental Nara sculptures also recently went on public view at the Hirshhorn Museum and Sculpture Garden in Washington, D.C. "So if you change the instrument, you might perceive the note a bit differently."
Looking ahead, Gouzer remains exceptionally confident in the long-term trajectory of Nara’s market standing. He stated that he would not be surprised to see a major painting by the artist eventually eclipse his current auction record, predicting that a top-tier work could comfortably command $30 million or even $40 million someday, even if he is not necessarily expecting that milestone to be reached during the November sale.
