London has not experienced an October like this in years, though the recent Frieze Week marquee sales painted a complex picture of a market defined by stark contrasts. The collective turnover at the evening sales held by Christie’s, Sotheby’s, and Phillips surged by 63.4 percent compared to the previous year, marking the most robust autumn performance for the London art trade since the beginning of the 2020s. Yet, this headline-grabbing figure masks a deeper imbalance in the landscape: Christie’s emerged as the undisputed titan of the week, accounting for nearly four out of every five pounds spent.
The disparity in performance was most visible on October 14, when Christie’s hosted two major evening sales anchored by the prestigious Peter Simon collection and a high-profile restituted Kandinsky. These events generated a staggering £218.6 million ($287.5 million). By contrast, when Sotheby’s took the rostrum on New Bond Street just one night later, it realized less than a quarter of that figure. This divergence underscores a market that, while showing signs of a collective resurgence, remains highly sensitive to the quality and provenance of the material on offer.
The Search for Blue-Chip Stability
Leading the market’s blue-chip highlights was Willem de Kooning’s 1977 masterpiece, Untitled. Selling for £9.8 million ($12.9 million)—a price that includes buyer’s premiums—it set a new auction record for the artist within Europe. Despite this achievement, the lot served as a reminder of the current market’s temperament; while significant, the price was modest compared to the £31.5 million ($41.4 million) fetched by Kandinsky’s Das bunte Leben (1907) at Christie’s just twenty-four hours earlier. Beyond the de Kooning, Sotheby’s pinned its hopes on a roster of established giants, including Gerhard Richter, Mark Rothko, and David Hockney, yet the house struggled to sustain momentum, with several works by younger, hyped artists failing to find buyers.
Sotheby’s Contemporary Evening Auction on October 15, 2026, catalogued 37 lots with a presale estimate ranging between £41.7 million and £58.6 million. By the time the final hammer fell, the sale had realized £46.0 million ($61.0 million). The result was hampered by a series of high-profile withdrawals, including works by Damien Hirst, Anselm Kiefer, and Leon Kossoff. Of the 34 lots that actually proceeded to the block, 28 were sold, resulting in a sell-through rate of 82.4 percent. However, at the hammer, the total sat at £36.9 million ($48.9 million), falling below the low estimate even after adjusting for the late withdrawals.
This performance represents a 3.3 percent slip in turnover compared to the previous October, when Sotheby’s managed a higher total despite offering seven fewer lots. The house now finds itself hovering closer to its 2024 low of £37.6 million than to the impressive £85.7 million achieved during the October 2022 season.
1977: The Miraculous Year of Willem de Kooning
The de Kooning painting was undeniably the evening’s emotional and financial center. Tom Eddison, co-head of contemporary art at Sotheby’s London, opened the bidding at £7 million ($9.3 million), eventually closing at £8.2 million ($10.9 million)—a result that sat precisely within the expected range of £8 million to £12 million. The sale of the 1977 canvas arrived at a propitious moment, coinciding with the Rijksmuseum’s significant retrospective exhibition, Willem de Kooning at work, in Amsterdam.
Art historian and critic David Sylvester once famously dubbed 1977 the "annus mirabilis" of de Kooning’s career, a period of immense creative clarity for the artist. The market’s appreciation for this period was evident, as the painting sold for two and a half times its previous auction price at Sotheby’s New York in 2015. Nevertheless, in the context of Frieze Week, it stands as the lowest-priced top lot for the house since 2023, when Francis Bacon’s Study for a Portrait (1979) fetched £4.3 million.
Records on iPad and Paper
While the high-end market for traditional painting showed signs of hesitation, there was notable activity in other categories. Gerhard Richter’s Abstraktes Bild (1992), which gained significant exposure at Documenta IX and last year’s retrospective at the Fondation Louis Vuitton, realized £6.7 million ($8.9 million). This represents an 86 percent increase over the £3.6 million the consignor paid for the same work at Christie’s London in 2011.
Digital and paper-based works also saw strong demand. A late work on paper by Mark Rothko, Untitled (1969), last sold at Christie’s New York in 1992 for $264,000, saw a meteoric rise, ultimately going to an online bidder for £3.8 million ($5.0 million). Meanwhile, David Hockney’s 1985 collage, Henry Reading, brought in £2.8 million, and Georg Baselitz’s 1964 canvas P.D. Idol reached £2.4 million, both exceeding their high estimates.
The most spirited bidding occurred in the lower and middle tiers of the catalogue. A striking example was Hockney’s 10th – 22nd June 2021, Water Lilies in the Pond with Pots of Flowers, a collection of six iPad paintings printed on dibond. With an edition of 25, the work soared to £1.9 million—nearly triple its high estimate—marking a record for the artist’s digital-to-physical output. Similarly, Michael Andrews’ Butterfly Fish (1978), a diminutive acrylic on paper, defied expectations by climbing from a high estimate of £120,000 to a final price of £704,000, setting a new record for a work on paper by the British painter.
Conversely, the market for younger, contemporary artists faced a "correction." Works by Lynette Yiadom-Boakye and Jadé Fadojutimi failed to clear their reserves and were bought in. Perhaps most tellingly, Banksy’s Grannies (2006), carrying an estimate of £1.5 million to £2 million, remained unsold, becoming the highest-valued lot of the night to fail.
Across the broader week, the data suggests a tempered recovery. Sotheby’s Modern British & Irish evening sale on October 14 brought in £8.9 million. Across all five of its London sales between October 14 and 16, the house realized £68.0 million ($90.1 million). While this brings its total for Modern and Contemporary art in the city to £598 million ($792.7 million) for the year—the strongest performance at this point in the calendar for over a decade—it is essential to note that nearly half of that annual figure was generated in June. During that month, the massive collection of businessman Joe Lewis provided a significant boost, yielding £296.3 million, headlined by a Modigliani nude that sold for £48.2 million.
Young Artists Assist Rebound at Phillips
In Mayfair, Phillips held its own Modern & Contemporary Art Evening Sale on October 15, enjoying a more consistent, if smaller, success. With only three withdrawals, all 20 offered lots found buyers, generating £14.8 million ($19.7 million)—a 43.6 percent increase over their October performance last year. Gerhard Richter’s Mathis (1983) led the sale at £5.8 million, finishing just under its low estimate, followed by a Banksy piece, Keep Ou T (2019), which realized £1.6 million.
The most exciting developments at Phillips were found in the results for younger artists, which produced two notable records. The London-based American painter Joseph Yaeger (b. 1986) saw his work Once, always (2023) achieve £645,000, more than three and a half times its high estimate. Paris-based Danish artist Eva Helene Pade (b. 1997) also saw a surge in interest; her painting Yellow Nights (2020) reached £167,700, far exceeding its initial estimate of £30,000 to £50,000.
As the auction circuit shifts its attention to Paris, the market faces a new set of variables. Sotheby’s is set to offer La Collection Schlumberger. Le Temps retrouvé on October 22, followed by Surrealism and Its Legacy and Modernités on October 23. These sales will take place against the backdrop of a city currently navigating social upheaval. Collectors and analysts alike will be watching these results closely, as they will serve as the final indicators of market appetite before the high-stakes marquee sales scheduled for New York in November.
